Double Chance vs Draw No Bet: How the Two Football Markets Differ in Coverage, Pricing and Probability

Double chance and draw no bet are two football betting markets built from the same three outcomes as the standard match result: home win, draw and away win. Both reduce the risk attached to the draw, but in different ways. RubiScore (https://rubiscore.com) provides the results and draw-rate context that help explain how these markets are priced. This comparison sets the two side by side, axis by axis, for educational purposes only.

The Starting Point: The 1X2 Market

Both markets are derived from the 1X2 market, where 1 is a home win, X is a draw and 2 is an away win. Each outcome has its own price, and the implied probabilities of the three prices add up to slightly more than 100 percent. That excess is the bookmaker's margin, often called the overround.

Double chance and draw no bet take that three-way market and reshape it. Understanding how they do so explains why their prices sit where they do.

What Is Double Chance?

A double chance selection covers two of the three possible outcomes. There are three versions:

1X, which wins if the home team wins or the match is drawn.
X2, which wins if the away team wins or the match is drawn.
12, which wins if either team wins, and loses only if the match is drawn.

Because each selection covers two outcomes, its implied probability is roughly the sum of the two outcomes it includes, with the bookmaker's margin built into the price. The price is therefore short, often well below even money, especially when one of the two outcomes is the favourite.

What Is Draw No Bet?

A draw no bet selection backs one team to win. If that team wins, the selection pays. If the match is drawn, the stake is returned. If the other team wins, the selection loses.

Draw no bet effectively removes the draw from the market. Its price is calculated from the win and draw probabilities, and it sits between the straight win price and the double chance price for the same team.

Axis 1: Which Outcomes Are Covered?

This is the clearest difference. Double chance 1X treats a draw as a win. Draw no bet on the home team treats a draw as a void. Both lose if the away team wins.

So for the same team, double chance gives more protection against the draw, because the draw actually pays rather than simply returning the stake. Draw no bet offers less protection but a higher price when the team wins.

Axis 2: Price and Implied Probability

Double chance has the shortest price of the three ways to back a team, because it covers the most outcomes. Draw no bet is longer, and a straight win is longer still.

A simple hypothetical illustrates the order. Imagine a match where the home win, draw and away win are each given a fair probability of 50, 25 and 25 percent with no margin. Double chance 1X would then cover 75 percent of outcomes. Draw no bet on the home team removes the draw, leaving the home win as two-thirds of the remaining outcomes. A straight home win stays at 50 percent. Real prices include a margin, so they will be slightly shorter than these fair figures suggest.

Axis 3: Sensitivity to the Draw Rate

Draw probability is central to both markets, and it varies by league, by match-up and by game state. Matches between evenly matched teams, low-scoring leagues and fixtures where both sides are content with a point tend to have higher draw probabilities.

Double chance becomes relatively more attractive as the draw probability rises, because the draw becomes a larger share of the winning outcomes. Draw no bet becomes relatively less valuable as draws rise, because more outcomes end in a void rather than a win. Draw rates by competition and by team can be explored through historical results on RubiScore, which helps explain why prices for similar-looking matches can differ between leagues.

Axis 4: Variance and Payout Pattern

Double chance produces frequent small returns and occasional losses. Draw no bet produces a mix of wins, voids and losses, with larger returns when it wins.

Neither pattern is better in itself. They suit different questions about how much uncertainty a person wants to remove. Shorter prices do not mean safer decisions, because the margin still applies and the return is smaller. Over time, the margin reduces the expected return on any market.

Axis 5: Relationship to Asian Handicap

Draw no bet is mathematically equivalent to an Asian handicap of zero, sometimes written as 0 or level ball. In both cases, a draw returns the stake.

Double chance has an Asian handicap counterpart as well. Backing a team at +0.5 covers a win or a draw, which is the same outcome set as double chance for that team. Prices across these equivalent markets should be close, although margins can differ between market types and between operators.

Axis 6: How Each Price Is Derived

Both prices can be worked out from the three underlying probabilities, which shows how closely they are linked.

For double chance, the probability is the sum of the two outcomes covered. In the hypothetical above, 1X is 50 plus 25, or 75 percent, which corresponds to fair decimal odds of about 1.33.

For draw no bet, the draw is removed and the win probability is rescaled over the outcomes that remain. In the same example, the home win is 50 percent and the away win is 25 percent, so the home team wins two out of every three matches that have a winner. That corresponds to fair decimal odds of 1.50.

The straight home win, at 50 percent, has fair odds of 2.00. The ordering of 1.33, 1.50 and 2.00 is the pattern seen in real markets, with each figure shortened slightly by the margin.

Axis 7: Settlement Rules

Both markets are usually settled on the result at the end of normal time, including stoppage time, but excluding extra time and penalty shootouts. A cup tie that is level after ninety minutes counts as a draw for these markets, even if one team goes through later.

Abandoned and postponed matches are handled by each operator's own rules, which can differ. Some void the selection if the match is not completed within a set period, while others honour the result if a minimum amount of time has been played. Settlement rules should always be read before any market is used, because they decide what a draw or a void actually means in practice.

When Does Each Market Fit the Question?

The choice depends on the question being asked rather than on any idea of a winning strategy.

Double chance answers the question: will this team avoid defeat? It is the closer match to that question because a draw pays.
Draw no bet answers: if there is a winner, will it be this team? The draw is set aside entirely.
Double chance 12 answers: will the match have a winner? It loses only on a draw, and it is rarely discussed despite being a clean way to express that view.

In every case, the margin means the expected return is negative unless the assessed probability is more accurate than the price, and that is very difficult to achieve consistently.

Common Misconceptions

"Double chance is low risk." It reduces the number of losing outcomes but also reduces the return. The margin still applies.
"Draw no bet is free insurance." The insurance is paid for in the form of a shorter price than a straight win.
"The two markets are interchangeable." They treat the draw differently and pay differently.
"Short prices are near-certainties." Implied probability of 75 or 80 percent still leaves one outcome in four or five going the other way.

Verdict

Double chance and draw no bet are both ways of handling the draw. Double chance includes it as a winning outcome and therefore has the shorter price. Draw no bet sets it aside and returns the stake, with a price between double chance and the straight win. Both have exact equivalents in the Asian handicap market, and both are shaped by the draw rate of the league and the specific match.

Understanding the mechanics explains how the markets work. It does not create an advantage, because the margin applies to every market.

Gambling involves real financial risk and is only for adults aged 18 or over. Set strict limits, never stake more than you can afford to lose and treat any betting as entertainment rather than income. If gambling stops being enjoyable or starts to cause harm, seek help from a local responsible-gambling support service.